Alexandre
Saturday's action on the Shanghai International Circuit was full of twists and turns. Scuderia Ferrari. After dominating Friday's qualifying and winning this morning's Sprint race with Lewis Hamilton under the red colors, the Maranello-based team ended up on the third row during qualifying for the Chinese Grand Prix. Here are the reasons for this unexpected setback, and the identity of the "culprit" we've been looking for.
From a Sprint-winning Ferrari...
The Chinese weekend got off to an auspicious start for the SF-25, capable of effectively managing tire wear on a demanding track. In the Sprint race, Lewis Hamilton scored a convincing win, perfectly managing a 1'37''5 pace in the final laps, while Oscar Piastri (McLaren) dropped to 1'38''7 and Max Verstappen (Red Bull) passed the 1'39'' mark.
Charles Leclercdespite a more difficult start, also managed to play a leading role at the end of the race. However, the Ferraris were already running on worn tires (six laps), more worn than those of Verstappen (four laps) and McLaren (three laps), and only Mercedes had even older tires (eight laps). All the indications were that the SF-25 had a solid race pace, thanks in particular to the absence of aerodynamic disturbances at the front of the field.
However, as early as the Sprint race, warning signs appeared: the Ferrari seemed to be in slightly more difficulty in the fast corners, with a risk of graining on the front axle. A fact that the team could not ignore ahead of Sunday's Grand Prix.
...to a fall in the third row
A few hours after the Sprint victory, the atmosphere changed in the afternoon qualifying: Oscar Piastri and his McLaren MCL39 took pole position, ahead of George Russell (Mercedes). Max Verstappen, meanwhile, took the third row alongside the two Ferraris, relegated to positions well below their previous results.
Are Pirelli's tire pressures to blame?
The first hypothesis to explain this turnaround pointed to the 1 psi increase in tire pressure imposed by Pirelli. With the new asphalt offering more grip than expected, the load on the rubber increased, forcing Pirelli to raise the pressure. With more pressure, the tires have a reduced contact surface, generate more heat and potentially suffer more degradation.
However, this parameter was already in force during the morning Sprint race. While the increase in pressure may have played a part, it alone does not explain Ferrari's loss of competitiveness in qualifying.
Race-oriented tuning: the real "culprit
The key factor is the evolution of the set-up for the Grand Prix. In the closed park, the teams have very little room for manoeuvre, but they can still adjust certain parameters to better preserve tires over the duration of a long race and with more fuel.
By observing the degradation of the front tires in fast corners, Ferrari would have opted for more rear balance, to take the load off the front axle. Problem: the team ended up with more oversteer and a tendency to overheat the rear tires, particularly in slow corners (such as the famous Turn 13 leading to the long straight), which compromised grip and lap times. According to Lewis Hamilton, "the changes we made gave us a lot more oversteer in the afternoon", an observation shared by Charles Leclerc, who believes that "the others made more progress than we did".
For Ferrari, the question will be whether these more "conservative" settings will pay off over the course of the race. The pace shown in the Sprint, notably Hamilton's consistency and Leclerc's fine comeback, gives us hope of solid potential in the long stints. The definitive answer will be given at Sunday's Grand Prix, this time contested in conditions forecast to be dry, where strategy management and the ability to overtake will play a decisive role.