Ferrari F1: Can the points scored at Suzuka reverse the trend, or is the Championship already in jeopardy?

The Japanese Grand Prix, held this weekend in Suzuka, confirmed the clear domination of Red Bull and McLaren at the start of the 2025 season. Formula 1. Max Verstappen won on the Japanese track, ahead of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. For Ferrari, Charles Leclerc was fourth, while Lewis Hamilton was seventh. Overall, a decent result, but one that leaves a feeling of unfinished business: after three Grands Prix (Australia, China and Japan), the Scuderia Ferrari totaled just 35 points, a far cry from the pace of previous seasons.

A third test race

After two already difficult meetings (5 points in the first race, 12 in the second), Suzuka was seen as a possible turning point for the Scuderia. Historically, Ferrari has often found a second wind here, thanks to an efficient chassis in fast corners and the fighting spirit of its drivers. However, the tone was set in qualifying: pole position went to Verstappen, ahead of the McLarens of Norris and Piastri, with Leclerc fourth and Hamilton seventh.

At the start, Verstappen took off perfectly, retaining the lead without too much difficulty. Behind him, the battle raged between the McLarens, with Norris and Piastri trying to dislodge him from a position that seemed to have been taken for granted. In the Ferrari, Leclerc managed to hold on to fourth place, while Hamilton moved up to seventh after a few good battles in the pack.

If we were hoping to see the Ferraris adopt a daring strategy to destabilize the leaders, we were right, the Scuderia stuck to a rather classic approach, with a single stop for each of its drivers. Leclerc kept alive his hopes of a podium finish in the opening laps, before losing out to the infernal pace set by Verstappen, Norris and Piastri. Hamilton, for his part, gained several places and even found himself in the fight for sixth place for a while, before finally dropping back to seventh.

A worrying points tally

After three Grands Prix, Ferrari's scoreboard is not looking good. As a reminder, here are the points accumulated by the team after the third race in previous seasons:

Year	Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Total after 3 races
2022	44	34	26	104
2023	12	14	0	26
2024	27	22	44	93
2025	5	12	18	35

This is in stark contrast to 2022 and 2024, when Ferrari scored over 90 points after just three events. This season, despite Hamilton's experience and Leclerc's natural speed, the team has struggled to make an impact. A score of 35 points seems meagre, given McLaren's rise to prominence and Red Bull's consistency.

The reasons for a delicate situation

1. A lack of qualifying performance
   Faced with McLaren's formidable pace on a fast lap, and with Verstappen as incisive as ever, the Ferrari SF-25 struggled to get onto the front rows. From then on, the race became more difficult to manage, with drivers spending precious time fighting their way through the pack rather than closing in on the lead.
2. Strategies that are sometimes too conservative
   At Suzuka, the stop window was crucial, and Ferrari didn't try to make the "strategic move" to hustle Verstappen or Norris. Leclerc and Hamilton were forced to follow the pace without being able to force an undercut or an overcut.
3. A single-seater in search of balance
   Performance in fast corners was decent, but the SF-25 seemed to suffer from instability in fast transitions, particularly at the start of stints on still-cold rubber. This can be felt at the key moment in qualifying, and the handicap quickly turns into a deficit that's impossible to make up in the race.

Towards a turnaround?

The main reason for hope for the Scuderia lies in the fact that this is still only the third round of the season. With 24 Grands Prix in all, nothing is mathematically certain. However, the pace set by the leaders is impressive. McLaren has just scored two victories (Australia, China) and a second place (Japan), while Red Bull won the Suzuka Grand Prix with Verstappen. Under these conditions, the gap could widen rapidly if Ferrari doesn't react quickly.

A Championship already over?

It was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Ferrari showed at Suzuka that it could set a solid pace over a long distance, as witnessed by Leclerc's fourth place and Hamilton's seventh. On the other hand, the 35 points scored after three Grands Prix clearly fall short of expectations, and raise doubts as to the Scuderia's ability to challenge for the title.

Can these points gained in Japan really reverse the trend, or are we witnessing yet another setback for Ferrari in the race for the Championship? The coming weeks will be decisive. If Ferrari doesn't score maximum points in the next few races, we may already have to start looking ahead to the 2026 season.